Trump’s mass deportation campaign has placed about 60,000 undocumented immigrants in ICE detention and deported between 350,000 and 605,000 people. However, some of you are probably thinking that the immigration crackdown is benefiting native-born American workers. Some argue the crackdown benefits native-born American workers, citing labor shortages in restaurants, construction, and healthcare. But how can that not raise wages for native Americans?
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ICE Raids and the Drop in Undocumented Workers’ Labor Participation
A major study by Elizabeth Cox and Chloe East of the University of Colorado at Boulder found that native workers are no better off due to the ICE raids. In fact, some native-born workers in immigrant-intensive sectors are worse off than before.
The ICE raids reduced labor participation among undocumented workers arrested by ICE. More significantly, they also reduced labor participation among the much larger group of undocumented workers who weren’t arrested. This was achieved by making immigrants fearful of showing up at work. In the most immigrant-intensive labor sectors, employment among undocumented workers fell by 3.4 percentage points. Male workers saw a 4.6 percentage point drop in employment, and hours worked per week fell by two hours.
If you think higher unemployment among undocumented workers is a success, judge the Trump policy accordingly. If you’re a traditional conservative who complains about government policy, call the Trump policy a failure.
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No Clear Benefits, and Some Losses, for Native-Born Workers
If American-born workers were willing to take jobs left vacant by undocumented immigrants, we’d expect to see an increase in labor supply among U.S.-based workers in these sectors. But that didn’t happen.
Native-born workers in immigrant-intensive industries typically hold better jobs that depend on immigrant labor. When there aren’t enough undocumented immigrants, demand for native-born workers slackens. But that didn’t happen. This happens to native-born workers at the same skill level as undocumented immigrants – those with a high school degree or less. The study found a 1.3 percent reduction in employment for this group. For every six lost male likely undocumented workers, there’s a loss of one male U.S.-born worker.
The MAGA crowd claims that taking jobs from undocumented immigrants will fill them with native-born Americans. Perhaps that would happen if unemployment rose very high. But that didn’t happen. Unemployment is higher than when Trump took office, but still a relatively modest 4.3 percent. Instead, American-born workers with educational attainment comparable to that of undocumented workers are losing their jobs because they depend on undocumented workers to get the job done.
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