In a historic first, the US voted against a UN resolution condemning Russia for invading Ukraine this week, breaking ranks with its European allies. This was not entirely unexpected. On the campaign trail, Trump had made it clear that “ending the war in 24 hours” would be a priority and that he would keep Ukraine out of NATO if need be.
However, no one could have thought he would make US military assistance conditional on a unilateral ceasefire. While Ukraine has since relented, this has raised doubts over future US support for the war-torn country.
Putin Playing Trump
Only a week after a phone call with Putin, Trump began to blame Ukraine for starting the war. While this may have been part of a carefully choreographed strategy, his refusal to call Putin a dictator is a clear giveaway.
It suggests that the ex-KGB spy is playing Trump to his advantage. The irony was not lost on anyone when Trump branded Zelensky a “dictator without elections” instead. Going into the talks, the US will have no leverage over Russia. After all, Trump has reportedly agreed to most of Russia’s demands.
Economic, not security guarantees
In seeking access to Ukrainian natural resources, Trump flipped the script from merely guaranteeing security to deeper economic alignment. But just days later, Trump also accepted a Russian proposal for selling rare earth minerals.
Zelensky knows that economic engagement alone won’t be enough to deter Russia whose arms industry remains more or less intact. Russian forces could easily regroup during a US-brokered ceasefire and return to the frontlines in a couple of years.
European allies question US commitment
Zelensky’s European allies can only do so much without US support. There is opposition from some EU member states and no one country could do it alone. Despite plans for a “coalition of the willing”, frenetic visits to Washington by top EU leaders show they are pinning their hopes on a potential peace deal.
This could come at the cost of Ukraine having to give up territory it has lost to Russia. The showdown between Trump and Zelensky has made Ukraine wary of any peace deal that could compromise its interests. While Trump may still get his way, it’s clearly not how a long-term ally would expect to be treated.
Trump’s Transactional Approach To End Nobel Hopes?
Trump may pride himself on his deal-making prowess. However, backtracking on support for Ukraine means he could be left with a ‘no deal’ on his cherished ambition of winning a Nobel. That’s unless he decides to invade the host countries, Sweden and Norway, that is.
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